Ross Judson: Spiral Dive

  Thursday, October 30, 2003


As Simple As Possible, But No Simpler
BucketHead: I'm not going to fisk, but I'm going to take issue with a number of points you raise. Your general tone is "path of righteousness".

We are having an effect on certain terrorists, but new recruits are banging on their doors, and overall I suspect terrorism is largely unabated. I think that there just aren't all that many people in the world willing to commit suicide for their beliefs. There are some, but not that many. The rarity of events lik 9/11 is statistical evidence for this.

America's Army is NOT exterminating terrorists at the moment. They are engaged in a low-intensity battle against resistance forces, after having exhausted the regular forces invading a teeny-tiny country. Yes, there are some terrorists in the mix, and we hear about the car bombs and so forth. 99% of the conflicts with American forces are run-of-the-mill insurgents. You can't call them all terrorists. Some of them are pissed-off natives who don't want the US in their country. Some of them are Baathists. It's a mixture.

The bottom line is that most of the strength of the military is engaged in nation-building at the moment. By most reports I've read, resources have generally been shifted away from pursuit of terrorism, and towards political change in Iraq.

This is single-issue, silver-bullet foreign policy. A very great number of eggs are in a single basket. There are so many eggs in the basket that, yes, in the absence of other fiscal responsibility, there are serious threats to the economic stability of the country.

Nobody thinks the 7% growth rate is anything more than a single exceptional quarter. Most predictions go for around a 4.5% quarter next time, which is still very good, but more in line with history.

Do you not see that the debate has everything with what the US may _legitimately_ do in the world? If a nuclear bomb had detonated in NY, and was traced to Saddam Hussein, the entire world would have been behind the US in removing him. They probably would have lead the way.

This is instead a forceful war of political change...cynical and expensive. It is by no means a "war of revenge". There is no direct connection between Hussein and 9/11. Are you arguing that you believe there to be a solid connection? One that was known BEFORE the war was initiated? You are certainly willing to trade on the idea, to make your political points. Do you or do you not believe it? What evidence do you have? You have no business using it as an underpinning to debate otherwise.

So what does $300 Billion buy us? Quite a lot. Our yearly medicare budget is around $250 Billion. The interest on the national debt is around $175 Billion (due to rise dramatically). $300 Billion is a rather incredible amount of money! Of course, prior to the war, Mitch Daniels (long since fired as White House budget director) explained that the war would cost around $50 Billion.

It is simple, and deceitful, to throw round numbers like "1% of GDP". The government doesn't have anywhere near a large percentage of GDP to work with; the federal budget is around 25% of GDP, I think.

With the huge deficits Bush has created just around the corner. we will be spending, on interest, enough money to do an Iraq every year in short order.

There are so many absolutes in what you write. "Terrorists are created not by our actions, but by the failure of their societies". So our actions have no effect? I think they do. I think our actions matter greatly. I think Bush's snubbing of the UN has had an effect. His abandonment of the Palestinian-Israeli peace process has had an effect. The trashing of Kyoto has had an effect (we can argue all day long about whether it would work or not, but symbolically it was a tremendous blow to multilateralism).

I'll retract the NASCAR remark, with regards to YOU. I stand by it as far as this Administration goes. And I stand by it for most people I've met in favor of the war. Their thinking hasn't gone much past, "punch me, and get punched".

"tit-for-tat" is one of the winningest strategies for the Prisoner's Dilemma, a well-studied game theory example. I gather, in your world, that there need be no foreign policy more sophisticated than tit-for-tat. tit-for-tat is a conservative position that attempts to engender cooperation, rewarding cooperation where it exists, and punishing it where it does not. There are strategies that can beat it, but it's pretty good all around.

We aren't playing tit-for-tat, because we just took the first punch. We chose the path of non-cooperation, of unilateralism.

Finally, you state that "It is sadly common for those who are protected to resent those who do the bloody work of protecting."

Do you believe that you are somehow identifying with more firmly, and are showing more solidarity with our armed forces? I do not recall you have been on any secret missions to Iraq.

Men with guns, you can't handle the truth, and all of that. You are not on the wall with a gun, and neither am I. There are men (and women) doing that. Do you imply that those who disagree with Bush policy resent our soldiers, who protect us, and who follow orders?
9:33:06 PM     | comment [] | trackback []

The Death Of Journalism.

According to Bill Moyers, it may be at hand. I haven't seen much lately that leads me to believe otherwise. There are still a few signs of life out there, where ethics haven't been bent and folded enough times to disappear entirely...It's a sobering interview. Everything involving television is for sale. I wonder how long even NPR can last; its ad content has slowly been creeping upwards too. It occurs to me that I have heard entirely too many times that we "shouldn't be spending public money on NPR".

Here's the thing, for those of you on the right. There are things that you think government should spend money, and there are things that I think government should spend money on. On your side, we've got big guns and a military, invasions of other countries, huge jails for mostly black people who can't afford Rush Limbaugh's lawyers, corporate welfare, tax cuts for the ultra-wealthy, and government funding of religions. I think it's worth noting that we're actually spending money on all that stuff.

On my side there's an R+D budget, health care, serious funding for educational institutions, we keep our progressive taxation system progressive, taxes can certainly go higher, and we keep important programs like NPR and NASA and yes, even the NEA. Here's the thing: The right's pet expenditures are an order of magnitude higher than the left's. The old canard about "free-spending liberals" just doesn't hold water any more. We all know exactly who the free spenders are now. So the next time you want to knock off the NEA, maybe I get to pick one out of your list.

You too can play amusing budget games! Try this budget simulator. I pretty much balanced the budget on the first try. It's not even hard to do. You just have to have your priorities straight...and get rid of the stupid tax cut that got us into this deficit mess in the first place. Plus nuke agricultural subsidies. I can't for the life of me figure out why a single mom struggling to make ends meet in the inner city should be forced to give part of her income to Archer Daniels Midland.

Old budget was $3274.734 billion ($2292.807 billion in spending, $981.927 billion in tax expenditures and cuts). New budget is $2914.09 billion ($2253.16 billion in spending, $660.93 billion in tax expenditures and cuts). You have cut the deficit by $360.64 billion. Your new deficit is $-3.63 billion.


3:10:12 AM     | comment [] | trackback []

  Wednesday, October 29, 2003


Timing is Everything.

It's strange when someone scrupulously avoids kicking you when you're down, even when you're down a long time, then takes aim when you get back up.  Maybe they don't know...but then again, how could they?  It is what it is.  A few shots are fair, even justified.  It is not something to be angered by.  Eventually you decide -- what rules you...love, hate, revenge, sacrifice, curiousity...you choose what defines you.  Or maybe it chooses you; the abyss and all that...

All I can do is move forward and make up for lost time... 


2:14:25 AM     | comment [] | trackback []

  Tuesday, October 28, 2003


Reader's Note.

I am leaning a little left to play a part.  Pay no attention.  :)


10:15:27 PM     | comment [] | trackback []

Sacred Cowlike America.

A little fodder:

  • Private Health Care Through Your Employer.  There's nuthin' beddah.  God intended it to be this way.  Why, the personal care of unsurpassed excellence we all get is all that stands between us and hell.
  • Guns are Great.  If I can't shoot it, I can't control it. 
  • American Democracy Is The Only Real Democracy.  You can just shut the hell up if you think anything else! 
  • The Founding Fathers BLAH BLah Blah blah blah.  They knew everything.  They even know about the magazines in the back of your closet, they invented light bulbs and boxed lunches, and they don't approve of what we're doing.  No sir they don't.  Follow the recipe.
  • Rich People Are Because They Are Just Plain Better People.  Luck, hereditary factors, hundreds of years of bia and bullshit, have nothing to do with it.  Please ignore the current round of cheatin' and lyin' on Wall Street.  Nothing to see here.  These are not the crooks you are looking for.  Move along.
  • Market Uber Alles!  All human function can be controlled by markets.  All human functions must be controlled by markets.  If all human bodily functions were controlled by markets, our toilets would be 3.7% more efficient.  This would lead to world peace. 

Ah.  I feel so much better!  Why do I still like it here so much?  I don't know!  Maybe it's the women.  Maybe it's the fact that with a little bending and twisting, this country could be so truly excellent.  I have a pipe wrench around here somewhere.


10:14:48 PM     | comment [] | trackback []

US Whacks Off

Ah, Power Rangers Foreign Policy!  As resident contrarian, please allow me to differ. Greatly.

What dumb-ass playground do you think we are still all on? Do you seriously believe that there are terrorists out there who give a crap about US strategy and actions? They don't. They know that the consequences of their actions are visited upon others -- the citizens of the countries we blow up, in the name of collective punishment. It's beautiful for them, really...they just have to sit back, drug up a 20 year old, shove him into a car, and tell him that 29 (or 63, or whatever the 'magic' number is) virgins are waiting for him on the other side of a 15mm red button. We toss ten thousand bombs into their countries, maim children, and create a whole new generation of recruits. "Wag the dog" usually refers to something else.

Do you think the rest of the world gives a shit about how the US looks when it mobs a country with its Army? Here is the lesson any intelligent planner has learned from this: No one country can stand against America, but America can easily bankrupt itself through the sheer idiocy of pursuing unbelievably expensive foreign policy. A bankrupt America becomes a corrupt American, and this will lead to its decline in the shorter time, rather than the long wait history teaches us is the norm.

What kind of flypaper do we have in Iraq, exactly? Is it the kind that attracts terrorists (you know, the really stupid ones)? Or is it the kind that gets stuck to a world power, sapping resources that are needed elsewhere, compounding domestic problems, and potentially setting off a domino effect that results in a cultural decline?

It's probably a bit of both. Your "can of whup ass" mentality was all fine and fun in the Wild West, and probably worked great in the 'hood. This ain't the hood. We have a lot more to lose than the momentary satisfaction we gain by killing a few idiots, and deposing a few standard despots.

The world isn't going to run out of despots any time soon. It also isn't going to run out of smart terrorists, who are gaining converts, created by our actions, at ten times the rate they were before. And I refuse to back that up with anything other than a gut feeling. You know it's true too.

Do I advocate we do nothing? Of course not. That would be stupid. WWF Smackdown Foreign Policy sounds kick-ass to the Nascar crowd. Woohoo! Now comes the hard part. Put it back together again. There are other ways.

We could have cured AIDS and raised living standards by half in a dozen countries, earning respect worldwide, for less money than two months of this war has cost. Politics and true leadership is about allocation of scarce resources, making hard choices, and going for the maximum effect. It's not about posturing, point-making, and throwing a $300 Billion Finger at the rest of the world, with a follow-on "fuck you if you don't like it. But will you please pay for it anyway?"

It's not that the rest of the world is anti-American. By and large it isn't. It just seems like such a huge waste of potential. So much human capital could have been created, for so much less. With these kinds of expenditures there could have been a third way...a way where the US leads by example, by education, by being reasoned, and right.

Amen, Brothers.


10:03:50 PM     | comment [] | trackback []

  Monday, October 27, 2003


White House Disallows Search For "Iraq".

This utterly bizarre.  Whoever runs the White House's web site has supplied a robots.txt file (which is used to direct web search engines) that prevents indexing of much of the content that is related to Iraq.  In other words, if you go searching for "Iraq" and "White House" on Google, you won't be getting any hits on the White House's site.

If you are trying to make debate go away on a certain issue, this is a way you might quiet it down.  Reducing the ability of the average citizen to search for what has actually been said and written by the White House makes sense in a scary kind of way. 

Altering the robots.txt like this may also limit the capability of "Wayback"-type engines, which show the web as it was, not how it now is. 

I'd like to think that this tactic does not have formal acknowledgement in the White House, and that it is the act of a some crank (who should be fired).

 


10:49:27 AM     | comment [] | trackback []

The Way of Terrorism.

This morning we find the NY Times and just about every other paper covering a serious round of terrorism in Baghdad.  There are at least 200 wounded, at least 34 dead.  Virtually all of them are Iraqis.  This is not, in any shape or form, "resistance" fighting.  What resistance murders dozens of its own people to make a "point" against an occupier?  If "collaboration" is given as a reason, it is a fiction.  The vast majority of the dead are regular Iraqi civilians, not police or anyone else who could be termed a collaborator.

I find the events of the past two days to be one of the strongest indicators we have yet seen of Iraq's former government being involved in terrorism.  That they have shifted to this tactic so quickly, and with deadly effects, speaks volumes about who they are, and what they were and are prepared to do.

If new elements in Iraq are responsible for these atrocities, we need to root them out.  The Iraqi people don't need foreign elements blowing them up, while they're trying to rebuild a society. 


10:28:48 AM     | comment [] | trackback []

  Sunday, October 26, 2003


Halo is Freakin' Great.

Oh yeah -- finished it this weekend...yes I am a slow older guy playing an Action Game.  I haven't played one in a very long time.  It was just a boatload of fun...highly recommended.  Good creepiness, great diversity...and the end is a blast...total nail-biter!  It's Not Just Another Action Game!


10:38:29 PM     | comment [] | trackback []

Not Even a "Weapons Program".

First the story was "They Have WMD".  Then the story became "They Have Weapons Programs".  I wonder what's next, given the incredibly detailed reporting in today's Washington Post, about the findings of the Kay teams.  Read it; you owe yourself that.

Seriously -- how do they spin this one?  My best guess is that they're going to abandon the terrorism and WMD lines of thought entirely, and simply focus on "we did the right thing".  Was it the right thing to do?  I don't know...in a relative sense, in Iraq -- yes.  In the long run they'll be better off IF the Islamic Nutscases(tm) don't find a way to corrupt the emerging government. 

The question is, what else could we have done with $200 Billion?  Could we have done more good elsewhere?  American's security was never at risk, vis-a-vis Iraq.  So what we've done is engage in a fantastically expensive piece of nation building.  Bush claimed during the election that he was against nation building.  How, then, did he end up doing so much of it?

Of course, nobody is going to accuse him of nation-building in Afghanistan (remember Afghanistan?  We blew it up too). 


10:24:11 PM     | comment [] | trackback []

  Saturday, October 25, 2003


Debating Dean.

Dean, you wrote "The list goes on, and any one of them alone was sufficient to justify our action".  It's hard to believe you just wrote that.

Here is the main reason for going to war: Someone _attacks_ you.  An army shows up, in one of your cities.  You kill them.  That is the ONLY completely justifiable, slam-dunk, "it's ok" reason for war.

What you are talking about are levels of political BS.  Do you seriously believe that, isolated from the other points, violating the oil-for-food program is a trigger for war?  I don't think you do, but that's what you just wrote.

There were good reasons to liberate Iraq, and there were good reasons, at the time, to do the same thing in any number of countries around the world.  Based on the criteria you've provided for going to war, we could be in a war almost anywhere in the world, if we felt like it.  We don't.

The real question is not whether Iraq deserved freedom from Hussein.  The real question is why we picked Iraq, as opposed to other countries, where we might have done more good with a lot less money?

The Administration _selected_ Iraq, out of a list of countries where an active military policy could create change, to implement long-standing neo-conservative policy.  The answer to the selection question was, at the time, "because Iraq support and supplies terrorists, and because Iraq has WMD".  We now know, with reasonable certainty, that neither of these things is true.  My opinion is that the White House went fishing in the murky waters of intelligence, and fashioned justification out of selective inclusion.

Creating a liberal straw man who simply says "no justification" may be an entertaining exercise for you, but that person pretty much does not exist. 

Every time you say "there WERE valid reasons for going into Iraq" what you're really saying is that you DON'T CARE about truthfulness before a war, and that the ends justify the means.

And to bring this thing around full circle: If we're not in a war because we've been attacked, we'd better be pretty damn airtight in our reasoning.  Bush took a gamble and he lost.  The bet wasn't on the outcome of the war -- that was a foregone conclusion.  The bet was that evidence justifying the incredible size of the expenditure would show up.

All that being said...the goal of a democratic Iraq is a worthy one.  I believe that an open debate on the question of whether military intervention was the best way to achieve it is appropriate.


11:48:35 AM     | comment [] | trackback []

  Friday, October 24, 2003


Nationalized Health Care == Deficits?

Think again.  Via Slacktivist (always an outstanding read), This CBC report shows just how darn good my native land is doing in financial terms at the moment.  And who's running the show up there?  The Liberal Party, more or less the equivalent of the Democrats...

National Health Care doesn't break the bank.  There is a hybrid system that could work here in the US -- just have all local governmental agencies (County Of Fairfax) for example, add a clause to their contracts that states that any resident of the county can join the plan the government workers get.  Joiners have to pay the full costs themselves, of course...but it's a good way of avoiding the individual insurance costs, which are nuts. 

It's instant freedom for those who will no longer be tied to an employer or plan...


1:05:50 PM     | comment [] | trackback []

God Has A Sense Of Humor.

I knew it!  Yes!  One of my pet theories is that God put us here, in this universe, to do something he doesn't expect...he creates a Universe that, at its base, has crazy little random things happening that basically mean you can't know what's going on.  He wants to be surprised!

And of course...every once in a while he surprises us

Actor Jim Caviezel has been struck by lightning while playing Jesus in Mel Gibson's controversial film The Passion Of Christ.

The assistance director got nailed twice.  I think that perhaps God is not particularly fond of this particular piece of theatre...

Update:

And now this!  

Surprise Solar Storm Erupts:

DENVER -- A geomagnetic storm spawned by a giant eruption of gas on the sun barreled toward Earth on Friday, interfering with high frequency airline communications but causing no major problems, federal officials said.

The storm was expected to be most severe Friday, though experts said they didn't anticipate problems with communication networks.

Seems to me like the big guy is a little pissed off at the moment.

 


12:45:04 PM     | comment [] | trackback []

  Thursday, October 23, 2003


Spam Throttle.

I've written on this before, but it's worth repeating:

My feeling is that the internet as a whole is going to evolve towards a trusted/untrusted scenario.  Big vendors like AOL and MSN will be "in the club", so to speak -- their mail systems will "trust" each other, and accept email at full speed.

Other systems, particularly those connecting for the first time, will be untrusted.  Those systems will be severly limited in the number of emails that will be accepted.  A Bayesian filter can be applied to the email coming in from any new connection.  The filter doesn't stop the email; rather, it builds an approximation of how much spam is coming in over that particular connection.  The odd false positive isn't going to hurt, that way.

As the system gains trust, which can happen only by having time elapse and by having a low spam percentage, trust will gradually accrue, and email traffic will be permitted to have progressively higher volumes.

The beauty of this situation is that you still accept email from just about anywhere, but you don't _trust_ that source, until that source proves itself.

It doesn't take very much to implement a solution like this.  Any organization that failed to implement it or have a strong anti-spam policy would find itself being on a lot of untrusted lists, and unable to send very much email.  Simply being a transfer point for spam will also get you untrusted, which means that you'll have to pay attention.


5:38:59 PM     | comment [] | trackback []

Terri Schiavo.

In response to Dave's comment:

Consider this possibility: The court system got it right.  I've read medical opinions on this case, which state that the statistical probabilities of coming out of a coma like that are essentially nil.  She will never come out of it, and that's that.  In addition, the behaviors that are described as "lifelike" are the hallmark of her condition.  Scans of her brain show that there really isn't much left of it, in a physical sense.  Most of it has atrophied, except for the autonomic systems.

So the court may have gotten it right.

That being said, I completely do not understand why the trust fund would revert to her husband.  If the trust fund was established to handle her care and feeding and it is no longer required, it should revert to an appropriate charity.  I can't understand why he gets it.

I get the sense that he just wants her dead so he can have the money.  That part is obvious.  But it's not the real question.  If you set him aside completely, and even set her parents aside, and look simply at the medical situation, what is the right thing to do?

The answer is probably exactly what the court ended up deciding...that removing the feed tube is the only humane thing to do. 

She once was a person.  She isn't any more.

And dude?  You need to be a little more careful about slinging around the old "Nazi" insult.  That's a pretty big gun to pull out.  Are you sure you want to get into that?  I'll let it go.

For those that didn't realize it, the entry in question was about El Presidente's habit of executing people like crazy in Texas.  I just found it ironic that a Bush governor would intervene in a case like this, where there is a difficult balance of ethical issues, and not give a crap about the twenty or so innocents that, if you know anything about probability, have been executed in Texas under GW's "leadership", which apparently consisted of not even reading the clemency petitions put before him.  Given the known error rate of our court system vis-a-vis capital cases, we must do better...

Yes, I realize the double irony of writing about the errors in the court system in a post that asks that you consider that the court got it right.


5:08:15 PM     | comment [] | trackback []

  Wednesday, October 22, 2003


Opposites Attract.

From the Post:

"Woman's Feeding Tube Is Ordered Reinstated. Gov. Bush Gains Power To Override Courts".

Here's tomorrow's headline, in advance:

"A Bush Governor Orders Someone NOT To Die; America confused by flip-flop."

I guess it was worth the flip-flop, in order to get that most excellent "Gain Power To Override Courts" Power Card for Magic the Gathering.


1:57:27 AM     | comment [] | trackback []

  Sunday, October 19, 2003


Roger Simon's Hair Trigger.

Roger Simon smacked Gregg Easterbrook pretty hard.  Now Gregg is out of a job at ESPN.  Here's the "offensive" paragraph that Gregg wrote, on violence in Hollywood films:

Set aside what it says about Hollywood that today even Disney thinks what the public needs is ever-more-graphic depictions of killing the innocent as cool amusement. Disney's CEO, Michael Eisner, is Jewish; the chief of Miramax, Harvey Weinstein, is Jewish. Yes, there are plenty of Christian and other Hollywood executives who worship money above all else, promoting for profit the adulation of violence. Does that make it right for Jewish executives to worship money above all else, by promoting for profit the adulation of violence? Recent European history alone ought to cause Jewish executives to experience second thoughts about glorifying the killing of the helpless as a fun lifestyle choice. But history is hardly the only concern. Films made in Hollywood are now shown all over the world, to audiences that may not understand the dialogue or even look at the subtitles, but can't possibly miss the message--now Disney's message--that hearing the screams of the innocent is a really fun way to express yourself.

It occurs to me that when we fire someone for being racist, that person should actually _be_ racist.  Or anti-semitic, or whatever.  It doesn't seem like there's a single person who knows Easterbrook who will say that he is anti-semitic.  He worships in a church that is co-located (and even commingled) with a Jewish congregation.

I read his paragraph about ten times.  Each time I read it, I got the same message -- should Jews not hold themselves to a higher standard, given their history?  What is wrong with the reading comprehension of you rabid reactionists? 

I'll tell you what it is.  You saw the words money and Jew somewhere close to each other in a paragraph, your internal red lights went on, and you weren't able to read the entire thing.  You weren't able to apply any form of tolerance in this situation. 

Let me simplify the paragraph, because you, Mr. Reactionary, don't want to: "Two wrongs don't make a right."

Is it anti-semitic of me to say that perhaps Jews ought to hold themselves to a higher standard when it comes to tolerance?  Show the world, by example, what tolerance means.  Show them that what has happened in the past is wrong, and that there is a better way.

These days, the cry of racist, in a context like this, is more or less like an accusation of sexual misconduct.  Your brush is out; you've painted with it.

How about you get off your hair-trigger, high horse, and think about what you write before you wreck another man's career in the name of tolerance and goodwill?

I wonder if your entire set of previous writings would withstand an intimate parsing for anything that could be interpreted to be, say, sexist?  Or perhaps racist in any way? 

Am I an anti-semite too?  Funny -- I've never considered, from the time I was a child, Jewish people to be any different from anyone else in any way.  I still don't, except that I know about some terrible events in history that have directly affected the Jewish people.


9:31:25 PM     | comment [] | trackback []

CalPundit On Progress In Iraq.

We don't have much to go on -- so far we've either had to believe media reports (which come in all shapes and sizes), or the Administration's "everything is peachy" outlook. 

Kevin Drum gives us a few ideas on how to parse the situation.  As always, he's worth reading.


6:20:48 PM     | comment [] | trackback []

  Saturday, October 18, 2003


Used To Be Worth Reading.

I am referring to Andrew Sullivan, of course.  He's basically retreated from the debate, and pretty much just relies on the "well, you're just a damn liberal" defense:

From NPR's Morning Edition. The following is the intro. Can anyone - anyone - deny that this is straight from the left-liberal playbook, under the guise of objectivity:

Bob Edwards: This is Morning Edition from NPR news. I’m Bob Edwards. Increasingly it seems the Bush Administration’s foreign policy is running into trouble. The post-war picture in Iraq and Afghanistan is highly unstable. The road map to peace in the Middle East is in tatters. There’s growing unease over the possibility that North Korea and Iran are pursuing nuclear weapons. Friends of the United States are not supportive. Overall, the policies of the United States are still very unpopular around the world. The Bush Doctrine, a preference for unilateral military action and a disdain for multinational diplomacy, is under scrutiny more than ever. NPR’s Mike Shuster reports.

Cripes.  Why don't we look at them, one by one?  I am not sure I can defend myself against a charge of being under a "guise of objectivity", otherwise...

  • Running into trouble: A reasonable person can say this is true.
  • Post-War Iraq: Unstable -- yes.  This is a natural result of a war and a pissed-off population.
  • Post-War Afghanistan: Does anyone in the Administration still give a crap about Afghanistan?  Not based on troop deployments or public opinion, they don't.  Bad situation getting worse. 
  • Road Map to Peace: In tatters; You Betcha.  Or is there some miracle going on over there that nobody knows about?
  • Unease over Nukes: Can you seriously say that nukes in the hands of North Korea (vicious dictatorship) or Iran (nasty theocracy) are not worriesome?
  • Friends of the US are not supportive: Sure, France, Germany, etc. etc. are supportive...in the eyes of GOP spokesmen.
  • Unpopular policies: Just read the media around the world.  Or, better still, try talking to them to find out how they feel, which is something a certain percentage of the population in this country couldn't be bothered to do.
  • Preference for unilateral military action: The war in Iraq is exactly that.  Not to mention the war in Afghanistan. 

In other words, the statements are factually correct, and arguable only in their degree.  What Andrew is really upset about is the very first sentence: The words "running into trouble".  I guess he doesn't think the media should be able to draw mean conclusions like that...those words trigger his accusations.  What follows them, fact, fiction, or opinion, doesn't matter to him.  Remember it whenever you read that kind of crap.


11:19:33 PM     | comment [] | trackback []

My Mendacity.

I wrote:

"It is demeaning to the memories of millions who died in the Great Wars to compare those wars' effect on history, lives, and civilization to Bush's private little war of political change.". 

RDB wrote:

"Probably the most clear example of the mendacity of Bush's opponents that I have seen to date. To encapsulate so much ignorance in so few words is the work of a savant. My compliments."

Dear RDB: Call me a liar?  You are a dick.  Plain and simple. 

"Bush's Private Little War of Political Change":

Bush: He is the guy in charge, in case you hadn't noticed.

Private: The publicly stated reasons for the war (WMD, terrorism) are not the real ones.

Little: There's little in the way of combat, death, or anything much else.  Except dollars, of course.  Please see any text on World War I or II, if you'd like to see an example of a large war.

War: We attacked them with military force.  We occupy the country.

Political: There was no immininent threat from Iraq, and no military threat.  Terrorism is a social crime, not a military threat.

Change: The regime change in Iraq is an attempt to change the region for the better.  The merits of this approach are quite debatable, even as the goals are admirable.

Feel free to expand your post to something beyond "you are a liar, Ross".  Pick a word, any word, and disagree.  Otherwise, crawl back into your hole.  Close the lid (tightly, like a bug jar).


10:44:53 PM     | comment [] | trackback []

  Friday, October 17, 2003


Too Tired To Dream.

It's early, this night...moonless, sirens, intermittent rain...I am too tired to do anything.  So I sit at the computer, exercising the mental nano-muscle that is all I need to surf the net.  I don't find anything.  The thing about patterns is, they repeat.  I'm not sure how to recharge, right now...everything remains undone.  The halfway mark in any run is hard.  You know there's as much ahead as there has been behind, and that what's behind wasn't easy, not at all.

I need to sleep.  I need this night to be over, and I need some daylight. 

Within I have a little coldness, a little anger.  There is a sheer weight to wasted time.

Repeat after me: Half full.

It's the past, and it's even distant.  But so are a lot of other things.


9:22:40 PM     | comment [] | trackback []

Stupid VPN.

Is down, I have a ton of stuff to check in, and I can't.  So I will just go to bed, which I should have done about three hours ago.  But I am stupid that way.


2:45:31 AM     | comment [] | trackback []

  Wednesday, October 15, 2003


China In Space.

I think it's pretty cool that they finally gotten someone up there...it's a real milestone for them, and I suppose for mankind.  It's a bit worriesome in the sense that seeing Chinese improve their rocket technology brings mixed feelings. But check this quote from the article:

 Gu Yidong, director and chief designer of the space application system in the space flight programme, told Xinhua that the ultimate goal for China's programme is to explore outer space and make good use of the rich resources of space.

Gu, who also directs the Space Science and Application Research Centre at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said the universe is abundant with energy and resources, while mankind, on its way to self-improvement and development, must constantly seek new channels to acquire more resources.

Since the 1970s, many countries have conducted experiments in space and have achieved major breakthroughs in the research of key space technologies.

Gu points out that the United States had led the world in turning space research into industrial technologies. They have developed, tested and perfected the breakthroughs in the US space programme, and applied them in US industries and helped bring an estimated US$2 trillion return for the American economy.

Thank God we're through with all that Space Nonsense here in the US!  We certainly don't need anything like a $2 trillion long term effect on the economy, right now.  We have all the jobs and technology we need, thank you very much.  There's no way we'll learn anything new, or anything applicable to our modern times.  No, we better keep our feet right here on good old Mother Earth, where we belong.

Is this country trying to do anything?  China is.

No, I don't count deceptive wars against tyrants.  Let China have its day.


1:49:04 AM     | comment [] | trackback []

  Sunday, October 12, 2003


Just Doing My Part, Ma'am.

Thanks to a good friend for pointing out that we can all do our part for America!  Since the President is having a lot of trouble narrowing down Plame's "outer", we can all chip in with an affadavit!  Write yours today!

1. I, Ross Judson, do hereby attest that on or about the dates of June 1, 2003, through July 14, 2003, I did not contact, whether by telephone, facsimile, e-mail, in person, or by any other means, any reporter, correspondent, journalist, or any other member of the media, with the intent to or purpose of naming former Ambassador Joseph Wilson's wife, Valerie Plame, as an operative for the Central Intelligence Agency.

2. I, Ross Judson, further attest that on or about the dates of June 1, 2003, through July 30, 2003, I did not have any conversation, whether by telephone, e-mail, in person, or by any other means, with any reporter, correspondent, journalist, or any other member of the media, during which the employment of Valerie Plame was discussed in any way.

Oh man!  I feel so patriotic and all that now!  Sweet!  The investigation can now proceed...


11:16:34 PM     | comment [] | trackback []

Eliminating NullPointerExceptions.

Every reference in Java is either null, or valid.  In the development stage of many applications, and even during production phase, we can still see a lot of null pointer exceptions being thrown.  This is usually due to failure to check a return value from a function call.

The null result is often returned from a function to indicate "I couldn't", or "that object was not available".  It is very common to want to return this result, and exceptions shouldn't be used to signify it.  We don't want to incur the overhead of generating an exception.

It would be interesting to be able to mark a method as "returns null", in the same manner that we can throw an exception.  The compiler can then check to see if the value returned is checked for null, before being used.  If the value is returned from the function, that function must be marked the same way, forcing callers of it to check, or declare to throw.

Yes, we can always put the null value into a class, and there are more convolutions of this principle that could get at that...

It is an interesting idea, nonetheless.  Extending it further, we can note that we might declare multiple return paths for any function, and the calling of that function becomes like a switch statement, where the type of the result directs the path of execution, much like a type-inferring language like Haskell or ML.

And maybe that is what I really want.  For now, though -- enforced null checks!


4:01:23 PM     | comment [] | trackback []

  Saturday, October 11, 2003


I Can't Sleep.

Too many thoughts...have coded a pretty AttractorPaint Java2D Paint implementation...need to figure out how to improve the color balances and make it go fast.  It's pretty cool -- you can give it any number of points and line segments, each associated with a color.  It then interpolates between the point being painted and the lines and points you give it.  You can set up nice color washes and other cool stuff...still, the math isn't right, it's too slow cause there's too much interpolation calculation.  When I say slow I mean it takes around a third of a second for a fairly big square.  That is stunningly faster than I expected it to run...but GradientPaint runs real fast, and I need to get it up to that speed...the goal is to create a beautiful background painting system for Piccolo...one that can create washes of color and variations, and even animate those...see the point behind using Shape was to be able to animate the color attractors with Piccolo, and then have a constantly shifting colored background.

Maybe pooters will be fast enough two or three years from now.


5:22:00 AM     | comment [] | trackback []

Guilty Until Proven Innocent.

This just makes me really sad.  Captain James Yee, who by all accounts has had a normal military career, including West Point, was tossed in jail over a month ago, on charges:

Washington Times: "The Army has charged Capt. Yee with five offenses: sedition, aiding the enemy, spying, espionage and failure to obey a general order. The Army may also charge him later with the more serious charge of treason, which under the Uniform Code of Military Justice could be punished by a maximum sentence of life. "

Let's look at a little typical "String Him Up!" reaction, at the time:

Little Green Footballs: "This is not surprising. Everybody knew this would happen if you let fellow Muslims visit Cuba. This guy is a walking deadman. They should put the firing squad execution on pay per view & give the proceds to charity. "     " This chaplin idiot was just a brain-washed brain-washer. Not that I am in anyway sympathetic. Burn him. "    " I hope he is hung in full view of his flock. Joining in with the enemy against his own country in the name of a allah, a false god of hate and murder should result in his early and swift voyage to the whore house in the sky reserved for scum like him.No Muslim should be allowed in any capacity in or near the military. I don't care how many civil rights are trampled on. Let the Arab community come out forescore against terror and maybe I'll revise my thinking. "

Even Donald Sensing: "This is a very serious event, and I am astounded that the major news media have not run the story. Oh, wait a minute, maybe I'm not - you can bet your sweet bippy that if a Christian chaplain or a rabbi chaplain, or an MP officer, for that matter, had been so charged, the media would be all over it. But Yee's Muslim identity entitles him to the media kid-glove treatment."

Now let's see what's actually happened, a month later:

Washington Post: " Yee, a Chinese American who converted to Islam, was charged with two counts of "failing to obey a lawful general order," specifically taking classified material to his home and "wrongfully transporting classified material without the proper security containers or covers."

The next step is for Army Maj. Gen. Geoffrey Miller, Guantanamo Bay's commander, to decide whether to dismiss the case, refer it to a special court-martial or send it to a more serious general court-martial, among other options.

Yesterday's announcement about Yee by the Florida-based U.S. Southern Command, which oversees operations at Guantanamo Bay, repeatedly said his case is being treated as a lower-level special court-martial case."

So let me get this straight.  We've gone from "sedition, aiding the enemy, spying, espionage" to forgetting to put a classified file in the right kind of envelope before carrying it somewhere.  Please note that nowhere does it say that Yee did not have the right to view the materials; he did, and he had clearance. 

This is why we have a system that is supposed to assume innocence, until proof of guilt.  Sensing's comments above are, well, non-sensical.  If a Christian man of the cloth were caught with having classified materials in the wrong kind of envelope, I suspect he would not be threatened with the death penalty, hauled off to jail, and made into an example by a significant portion of the starboard side of the blogosphere.

Bottom line is -- this guy didn't do anything wrong.  Classified material gets mishandled constantly.  Most of it goes unnoticed, and the very vast majority of times someone does notice, a quick word or two sets procedure straight, and everyone goes about their business.

Captain James Yee, West Point Graduate, combat veteran, military chaplain, is owed an apology for the destruction of his career and reputation, by panicked little minds bent on the focus of hatred, dissatisfaction, you name it.  It's just wrong.


5:14:31 AM     | comment [] | trackback []

  Friday, October 10, 2003


Hurling Crap At The Wall.

Sigh...yet another goofy post from yet another "team player" trying find any way he can to blame the Wilsons for their own outing.  Apparently they deserved it!

1. What exactly is illegal about an individual in this country making a political donation?

2. What part of "non-official cover" do you not understand? Now that we're five days later, we know that Brewster-Jennings was in fact a CIA front company. We don't know what other damage revealing it has caused.

3. Say, should an undercover CIA operative put "CIA" as her employer on every form that she gets? Uh...no. In fact, there's probably a very specific rule or law somewhere that says that it is OK FOR A CIA OFFICER TO LIE when they're asked who their employer is.

Love the retractions that pop up on these web sites. Five days after accusing her of illegal campaign contributions, I find an average, and deafening, silence.

Moved on to the next wild accusation, have we?


10:44:11 PM     | comment [] | trackback []

Before and After.

I don't know why I bother.  A self-congratulatory round by the GOPers on Dean's World

And for those of you still confused by the notion of "before" and "after", please feel free to read a complete timeline of events, with hyperlinks to every major article and item:

http://justoneminute.typepad.com/main/2003/07/the_valerie_pla_9.html

July 14: Novak's column fingering Plame as CIA.

Aug. 26: Frog march comment by Wilson.

You will note that the "frog march" comment in question occurred AFTER the column.  Repeat after me: Before! After!  Now we all understand.

Just because this didn't hit the mainstream press until the CIA requested an investigation doesn't mean the situation hadn't already started.  It started July 14.

Painful, obvious revisionism won't do.  Really, the best defense, if you care to make it, was that the leaker simply wasn't aware that he was leaking classified information.  That's even believable. 

The second major criticism that is repeated over and over again is that Wilson is a loser and is unqualified for the job.

GOPers: If you say that Wilson was unqualified for the Niger investigation. Why don't you give us a short list of what you believe to be adequate qualifications for the job?

Then compare your list to this, which is part of Wilson's BIO:

"Ambassador Wilson served as Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for African Affairs at the National Security Council from June 1997 until July 1998. In that capacity he was responsible for the coordination of U.S. policy to the 48 countries of sub-Saharan Africa. He was one of the principal architects of President Clinton’s historic trip to Africa in March 1998.

Ambassador Wilson was the Political Advisor to the Commander-in-Chief of United States Armed Forces, Europe, 1995-1997. He served as the U.S. Ambassador to the Gabonese Republic and to the Democratic Republic of Sao Tome and Principe from 1992 to 1995. From 1988 to 1991, Ambassador Wilson served in Baghdad, Iraq as Deputy Chief of Mission at the U.S. Embassy. During “Desert Shield” he was the acting Ambassador and was responsible for the negotiations that resulted in the release of several hundred American hostages. He was the last official American to meet with Saddam Hussein before the launching of “Desert Storm.”

Ambassador Wilson was a member of the U.S. Diplomatic Service from 1976 until 1998. His early assignments included Niamey, Niger, 1976-1978; Lome, Togo, 1978-79; the State Department Bureau of African Affairs, 1979-1981; and Pretoria, South Africa, 1981-1982."

Let's see...served for three years in Niger, extensive experience in the African sphere...Iraq connections, etc...

Wouldn't you be looking for someone who was familiar with both countries, both cultures?


10:08:11 PM     | comment [] | trackback []

You Win Some, You Lose Some.

Perfidy quotes recent Andrew Sullivan.  Once upon a time I figured Sullivan was a must read.  Quotes like "Nope, the pacifists and anti-war crowd are on the side of the tyrants - now as so often before" are such absolute bullshit that he isn't on my A-list any more.  I pretty much consider anything he says to be worthless.  There are plenty of other conservative sources that are far more thoughtful, and don't make such obvious mistakes.

I did think it might be useful to write Sullivan and let him know that, in the vast constellation of probable give and take in our democracy, a little horse trading is sometimes necessary to unstick the stickiness.  We need to figure out which of our positions we'll be willing to give a little ground on, in order to get something else that we really want.  So maybe this time around we'll just stop carping on Gay Rights issues, and give that one up to the Church-State integrators in his party.  Maybe in return they'll give us some kind of National Health Care, because we're asking nice.

You win some, you lose some.  Unless it's your issue, right Andrew?  Then all of a sudden you really, really care.  Keep in mind that a significant chunk of your party thinks you should be in jail.  Keep in mind that it is also an official plank of your party's platform.  For you to be in jail.

Enjoy the freedom, for now.


3:46:43 PM     | comment [] | trackback []

 Anders Hejlsberg is Wrong, Part II.

And this time it's not me saying it.  James Gosling is saying it.  Excellent.  Bottom line is, it's fun and fast to ignore exceptions or catch them in some pointless top-level loop.  That's fabulous for, I don't know, applications that don't matter?  Now you're writing an app that has to stay up.  This is what most of us are doing now, in the Java world.  It has to stay up for months, or years.  Do you think your top-level exception loop is going to be able to handle the multiple strategies that are necessary to deal with failure in that environment?  You're going to activate retry-logic at the top level?

And what the heck is the top-level in any modern Java app anyway?  It doesn't exist.

Java helps you build robust code.  That is now, and has always been, its most important feature.  It does a better job of this than any other commonly used language.  We have a couple of a million lines of Java code in our app, and it's pretty damn bulletproof.  Trying to get to that level of reliability in C could take decades.  And no, we are not crappy programmers.  If you think you could do it in less time, you think you're smarter than a lot of very smart people out there who have been writing system-level stuff in C for longer than you have been alive.  Here's a clue: You're not.  You need the help; you just don't know it yet.


2:49:51 PM     | comment [] | trackback []

Once Again, Ladies And Gentlemen, Josh Marshall.

Josh makes tough reporting look easy.  Or maybe it's that he figures out how to dissect the spin.  Novak has whined that his use of the word "operative" was unintentional -- Josh went and looked at each of Novak's uses of that word, in his columns.  Six for six, he found that Novak used it to refer to a covert agent.  It is possible that Novak unintentionally used the word, but his history tells us otherwise.

I think a "Senior Administration Official" tested the waters on this one, and burned his toe.


11:29:48 AM     | comment [] | trackback []

The Weekly World News.

Is it just me, or does the average Right-leaning blog these days read a little something like everybody's favorite crazy, Saddam-and-Osama's Gay Wedding tabloid?  The extrapolation, torturous fact-curve fitting, and generally vigorous fact-avoidance is becoming a sight to behold.  Since the facts are uncomfortable, many "conservatives" (I use that term loosely, because most of them aren't real ones), have shifted their discourse well away from facts.  The new, improved method is to trash the target's motives and qualifications.  The recent tarring of Wilson is an excellent example, and so is this; InstaPundit highlights a recent Brendan O'Neill opinion:

This canonisation of the rational inspectors, in contrast to hysterical Bush and Blair, is a spectacular rewriting of history. . . .

Far from being anti-war, Hans Blix, David Kelly and the rest helped to make war an easy option for the West. The inspectors' differences with Bush and Blair in the past year have nothing to do with opposing Western intervention in Iraq - and everything to do with cynically defending their special position on the world stage. . . .

Rather, the inspectors' sudden turnaround - from being 'deeply suspicious' about Iraq to claiming that Iraq is not a threat after all - is driven by a far more squalid clash with the US and UK governments. In criticising Bush and Blair, the inspectors are merely attempting to defend their own position rather than actually challenging America and Britain's actions in Iraq. The inspectors thrived on a climate of suspicion about Iraq, on the notion that Saddam might potentially be a threat and must constantly be kept in check just in case. The inspectors are irritated by Bush and Blair's war because it knocked them off their perch, undermining their authority and purpose on the world stage.

Brendan is something of a miracle worker.  He has a special, God-given ability to see directly into the minds of whoever he thinks his enemies are on any particular day, and understand their motivations!  It is amazing.

Let's look for the new headline:

PSYCHIC REPUBLICAN DETERMINES FUTURE OF IRRITATING LIBERALS, AND ANYONE ELSE WHO DISAGREES WITH WHATEVER THE CURRENT LINE OF BULLSHIT IS.    


10:53:54 AM     | comment [] | trackback []

At Play in Piccolo.

Something unexpected...(this likes a fast machine).


1:54:35 AM     | comment [] | trackback []

  Thursday, October 09, 2003


Iowa Market Predicts CA Recall.

These little markets can be fun.  I have a prototype working, and will be revising it in the future with members of the Ministry, but in the mean time, Brad Delong notes that it did a great job of predicting the CA recall:

Actual Iowa Electronic Markets
for recall 54.3% 53.5%
against recall 45.7% 44.5%
Schwarzenegger 46.8% 47.0%
Bustamante 32.4% 30.1%


11:54:07 AM     | comment [] | trackback []

Punish the Accuser.

I find it astonishing that one of the most widely-read bloggers, InstaPundit, is suggesting that the proper reaction to the Plame Affair, and subsequent requests for a criminal investigation of the Adminstration, is to fire George Tenet.  Reynolds doesn't think we should find and prosecute the person who leaked the information; he thinks we should fire Tenet for having the temerity to challenge the administration. 

And if I read one more right wing idiot write that, "it just doesn't make sense -- there's no point in outing Plame because the damage was already done"...it is phenomenal that you simply cannot comprehend the notion of a chilling effect.  Are we more or less likely after the Plame incident to have anyone with information detrimental to the Administration be somewhat less receptive to coming forward?  The chilling effect is widespread.

Much Administration policy has been based on their interpretation of intelligence information.  They have characterized that intelligence and paraphrased it for the public.  If they have been playing politics with that information that is an extraordinary offense, and something that the public must know.  Punishing Plame and Wilson slams the door shut on the possibility of discovering if the intelligence was something other than what Bush says it is.

Before the war the Administration encouraged, strongly, the idea that there was classified information that they had in their possession, by which they knew that WMD were present in Iraq.  That was entirely logical; you wouldn't want to reveal your sources and methods.  Most liberals who were in favor of the war were willing to buy this -- they were willing to believe the Administration on this.

So if they politicized, altered, spun the information...we have to know.  Free flow of information is how democracies operate best.


11:47:12 AM     | comment [] | trackback []

Piccolo Clock Action.

This is something I played with this evening.  Note that if you are running IE and you haven't installed the Java 2 stuff, you'll need that...this uses the default APPLET tag, only the recent Javas support that on Windows.  Go to JavaSoft and pull the latest runtime and you'll be set.

Ain't it cool? Check out Piccolo!


1:27:48 AM     | comment [] | trackback []

  Wednesday, October 08, 2003


The Other Eclipse.

The Haley Project is Paul Haley's commercial exploration of rule system technologies and advances.  If you haven't paid much attention to rule-based programming, you should become familiar.  I've written on the topic before, and you didn't listen, did you?  You should check out Jess, from Sandia.  You should also check out Eclipse, The Haley Project's powerful rules engine.  One of the best things you can do for yourself once you get past the initial familiarity phase of CLIPS and rule programming is read the downloadable manual for Eclipse.  It is chock full of advice for the rule systems programmer; serious advice, on how to structure facts, information, and requests.  It was an unusual read for me -- I didn't think that anything like that existed.  I have been painfully creating my own structures for performing many of these tasks, and I would have had a huge head start if I'd read the Eclipse stuff first.

Eclipse also comes with a powerful debugging system that allows you to really pull apart the rule network and understand what's going on inside of it.  Being able to observe these things gives you the ability to fine-tune your rule network.  Eclipse's variant of the CLIPS language provides additional mechanisms for specifying network structure that can come in really handy for tuning.  It also provides very powerful agenda handling; this can be used to avoid a lot of the salience games you normally play in CLIPS.

Haley also has the AuthoRete product, which allows you to build rule systems from plain english statements.  And it understands quite a bit of english, if you follow some reasonable structuring guidelines. 

I'll be examining this one closely over the next few days.


8:36:28 PM     | comment [] | trackback []

I Like Mozilla.

Kicking mozilla to the curb. ...in a manner of speaking. The Firebird and Thunderbird Mozilla projects have both been working very well for me. In particular Firebird gets rid of the vein-poppingly infuriating UI decision to put 'Close Tabs' and 'Close Other Tabs' right next to each other, and when looking at your 'Sent' folder Thunderbird can actually display the recipient rather than the sender, which is always you. Thunderbird in particular seems a bit snappier when marking junk mail and deleting messages. And both seem stable on Win32 (XP) and Linux. [cwinters.com]

You know, I've never really understood why people keep complaining about it.  It's way cool, stable, fast, everything.  The usual complaints are too big, too bloated...what kind of machine are you running on, anyway?  On my box Moz sits in resident mode, and it's up and browing in a fraction of a second, whenever I want it.  It's a small download.  It installs painlessly, without requiring reboots.  Popups are a thing of the past.  It has comprehensive newsgroup handling, chat, and lots of other cool stuff.  You can customize the heck out of it.

What's not to love?  Where's the love, man?

I am anti-dissing Mozilla.


4:11:01 PM     | comment [] | trackback []

Six Plame Questions.

On Dan Dreznor, you can see a serious Republican having serious doubts.  Check the comments, too. 

Here's my thought for John Bruce: Try taking off your Bush-O-Vision sunglasses for about five seconds.  What _exactly_ are you claiming here?  Are you saying that Plame is NOT an agent?  This seems to be a popular claim at the moment; it's an easy excuse to make: "She's just some low-level whatever, so none of this matters."

How about answering a couple of questions, in as straightforward a manner as you can manage:

1. Do you believe Plame is or has been a covert operative?
2. What evidence would convince you of 1?  Keep in mind that the CIA itself will neither confirm nor deny anything secure, as a matter of principle and procedure.
3. If Plame is currently a covert operative, is it a crime to out her?
4. If Plame WAS a covert operative, is it a crime to out her?
5. Do you believe her identity was revealed as a political act?  That is, to punish and/or intimadate.

and finally...let's throw in the bonus question:

6. Do you believe that there are senior administration officials in the White House who KNOW who leaked?


1:42:54 PM     | comment [] | trackback []

  Tuesday, October 07, 2003


Rose-Colored Hindsight.

Sullivan specializes in retrofitting past policy and pronouncements to fit the current fact cycle.  You can dance around it all you want, but WMD absolutely was the sales pitch for the war.  In addition, the Administration repeatedly painted that threat as being imminent and massive.  The imminence was amplified by Powell's speech, Rice's comments, and numerous stories and briefings.  The threat of nuclear terrorism was used to amplify the level of the threat.

It is a simple exercise to simply visit the White House site, peruse the speeches and briefings, and locate pronouncements that tie Hussein to 9/11, and play up the threat he posed.  They're all there, right from the beginning.  There is no need to go to any other source.

Like it or not, Bush went into this war with a weak hand, and a strong bluff.  He bet he could locate WMD; that he would be able to justify, after the fact, his actions. 

Now that the reality doesn't match up to the sales job, his supporters are frantically misdirecting and revising.

The not-so-hidden subtext before the war was that Bush KNEW, somehow, about a very real threat that Hussein represented...that there was classified information that he couldn't reveal that gave him a certainty that we in the public sphere could not share, because in our sphere the evidence did not exist.

"Continuation of the '91 war" arguments are foolish.  Ask this simple question: If 9/11 had not happened, would Bush have invaded?  Or would he have simply let time take its course.


2:05:42 PM     | comment [] | trackback []

  Sunday, October 05, 2003


The Rush Limbaugh Thing.

It's a two parter, and you need to separate them. 

I note a mixture of Republican reaction on Right Wing News.  I also note that there's significant mischaracterization of leftward positions on this issue.  I'll clear it up for you.

Let's make the assumption that Limbaugh has purchased large quantities of this drug, large enough to trigger trafficking laws.  Do I think he should go to jail?  No.  I also don't think that if some black guy gets caught on the street with N+1 painkiller tablets, where N is the number you need to trigger trafficking, that he should be sent to jail either. 

The problem is these mandatory sentencing laws.  We have to be able to trust our judges to look at these situations and do the right thing; they've got to be able to weigh facts like medical condition, first offense, and so forth.  There is just no way that Rush Limbaugh is a drug trafficker.  Why, then, should he be at risk to a conviction on drug trafficking laws?  Why should another, lesser known, person be?

If you are on the Right, this is something you're going to need to work out for yourself.  You either believe that the law should be applied evenly, or you believe that this is a bad law.  You can't believe that this is just a bad law in this case, because Rush is X.  It doesn't matter whether X is rich, famous, first time offender, or anything else.  The law puts him in jail, as currently written.

The fact that the Florida police have apparently indicated that they're not interested in pursuing Rush, even though he may have had the triggering number of pills in his possession, will surely be of great comfort to the thousands of people currently serving their minimum sentences, for much of the rest of their lives, for a similar offence.

Yes, I know that there are real drug traffickers, and real drug offenders, in jail.  I have no problem with that.

Part Two: The "McNabb Situation".  Give the guy a break.  We all say things that are dumb now and again, and this was his.  Pro sports broadcasting is tough, and the pros who work it have to be controversy-free for decades at a time.  It's hard work.  Find me someone Rush's age who hasn't made a mistake now and then and let the past sneak up in his mind.

I'm 36 and I know I have.  Once or twice in my life (literally) I've quite inadvertently made a sexist remark.  It stays with you and you think about it.  And maybe you don't do it again.  But then again, I grew up in the 70s, and maybe it will.  I need to look at myself on the whole, and know that I am not that kind of person.


8:25:48 PM     | comment [] | trackback []

H1-B Realities.

Chiara has recently written on this subject.  You should read what she said, and take the time to read the report she refers to.  There are a number of forces at work, and they're not working in favor of us programmers here in the US...

  1. Cheating is rampant.  Companies abuse the H1-B process to find cheap labor.  They falsely certify that they are unable to find appropriate employees already able to work in the US.
  2. Corruption is present, and may be common.  There are people out there who "broker" H1-B positions; they're in a position to hire and fire, falsify certifications, and so forth.  Employees are often required to pay to get their position, or give part of their pay.
  3. L1 abuse is becoming more frequent.  This does an end run around the entire visa process; consulting front companies use the L1 process to import additional consultants, who are farmed out at cheap rates. 
  4. Fear means silence.  Current H1-B holders are often scared to complain about long work weeks, low pay, paying a "toll" to get their job, or giving part of their pay to some organizer. 

What we've got is a system with good intentions (to allow American companies to import the specific, skilled expertise they need), that's resulted in a lot of cheating and imbalances. 

In the interests of full disclosure, I'll point out that I am a Canadian working in the US.  Fortunately, Canada and the US have a bidirectional visa program, whereby Americans who work in certain professions can easily get a visa to work in Canada, and vice-versa.  Our two cultures are very comparable in just about every way, so that program has worked well for both countries, and given the citizens of each substantial additional freedom.


8:08:39 PM     | comment [] | trackback []

Dirty Pool.

More Schwarzenegger allegations have hit the airwaves today, and they're being furiously dissected everywhere.  The predictable reactions are taking place -- Dems saying "I told you so", or "do you want this man for your governor". GOP are saying that this is just the very worst of partisan politics.  Both sides are right, I guess...this is the essence of hardball politics.  The Dems definitely, specifically waited until this point in the campaign to get maximum mileage out of the announcement.

That being said, if you're a voter, you have some decisions to make.  If you're a Republican, you need to think through your position, if you've just cried "Partisan!".  There aren't that many possibilities:

  1. He never did any of this.  All of the women are lying.
  2. He did some of it, but only the playful stuff.  Some of them are lying. 
  3. He did some of it, and he did some of crappier stuff.  Some of them are lying.
  4. He did all of it.  They're all telling the truth.

If you pick any of 2 through 4, you get to as yourself the next question: Does it matter to you?  If he has done only playful things, then maybe it doesn't matter to you.  If he's done some of the lousier things that have been reported, it might be harder to make that same assumption.

You could try to tell yourself that it's in the past, that he's put all that behind him.  And that could be true. 

I heard on Chris Matthews' show the other night that Schwarzenegger has given a ton of money to various Jewish causes over the years.  If that is true, then I think the whole Hitler thing is quite unfair.

Bottom line is, you need to parse it through.  You choose which of the accusations to believe, if any.  Then for each, you decide if you think it makes a difference.  Then you vote, or write.

But don't simply call "Partisan".  Do the exercise.  Prove to yourself that it is, simply, partisan.


7:51:03 PM     | comment [] | trackback []

  Friday, October 03, 2003


Inclusive Healthcare.

Hey, here's a thought. When you want to talk about an anti-business-development problem of massive nature, why not start with health care?

It is incredibly difficult for a company to provide health care to its employees. The costs have escalated dramatically (like almost 50%) over the past couple of years.

Using the "corporation" as an organizing group for the purposes of negotiating health care is STUPID. Employers change, grow, shrink, and move around.

I'm not saying you have to take it away. It's fine for those who want it, and those companies that _choose_ to provide it.

Rather, I'm saying that there should be other units of organization. Why not have a Fairfax County Heath Plan? FC negotiates a good rate, and possibly even a choice of plans. Anybody in FC is welcome to join the plan. FC acts like a corporation in this regard -- it becomes an organizing group. It selects from the available health plans and makes that group rate available. FC can subsidize for its employees, but doesn't for the residents of the area.

Any local government can do this instantly by informing its insurance company that forthwith, the plan will have to be made available to any legal resident of the area. That resident will have to pay the full cost of it, but it's available.

If these kinds of plans spring up everywhere, it'll get control over what's going on.


11:34:41 AM     | comment [] | trackback []

  Thursday, October 02, 2003


Summer Camp.

This is my simple test: Have you been to Summer Camp?  Was it a religious Summer Camp?  Were there guns there?  Did you learn how to use them?  While doing this, did you talk of overthrowing any governments?  Was there a category of people that you decided to hate, to kill?

I like to see folks practice their religion.  Go to it.  Figure out your relationship with God.  But if you've attended a Summer Camp somewhere, well, I really don't give a shit about what happens to you.  Even if you didn't do it.  You went to camp, and you made your choice.


8:55:11 PM     | comment [] | trackback []

You MUST Publish My Book.

David Bernstein writes a book on free speech. His book apparently makes use of bog-standard conservative/libertarian examples, and is fairly hostile to what a potential publisher termed "standard social mores".  The publisher turns down the book, and Bernstein points to this as yet another example of Left-Wing Bias. 

Since when is a publisher required to publish Bernstein's book?  This particular publisher feels his example set, driven by right-wing principles, is not something that should come from their house. A publisher takes responsibility, and is often associated with, the books they publish.

A vigorous defense of the first amendment counched in Right Wing politics is just noise in a partisan suit.  If Bernstein had managed to write said vigorous defense and stayed neutral, the rejection might not have happened.  Play with the bull; get the horns.  If you want to indulge in the luxury of promoting your political views while writing serious material, don't expect it to be taken seriously by a significant chunk of your audience, or your potential publishers.

If Bernstein had written a book a free speech that promoted Communist doctrine as a primary theme, he might likely have had the same response. 

It's the same boring Right Wing crap -- if the reaction to non-sensical mutterings is negative or critical, it's not a reaction any more.  It's bias

Grow up.  Figure out who published Treason, and you'll find plenty of like-minded friendlies.


5:17:01 PM     | comment [] | trackback []

User Pays.

Demonstrating a substantial inability to pull apart these crazy political money issues, John Hawkins castigates John Kerry's notion that we should roll back some of the top bracket tax cuts.  Here is a very simple way to think about this whole situation:

  1. Ultra-rich one-percenter folks are the ones who support Bush; they paid for his Presidency.
  2. Bush policy is to deficit-finance pre-emptive wars based on deceptive reasoning.
  3. Rich, one-percenter people can damn well pay for the war they bought, since they put him in office.

In other words, let's go user-pay on this.


4:28:12 PM     | comment [] | trackback []

My Eclipse Wish List.
  1. Move member function somewhere outside its hierarchy.
  2. Export/import breakpoint set (I have complex ones with filters I would like to share).
  3. Common LISP support.
  4. Scheme support.
  5. Jess support.
  6. Splitting of editor windows
  7. Fast numbered bookmarks like JBuilder (ctrl-shift-# to set, ctrl-# to go to).
  8. Better decorators to show cvs modification status (they're too small).
  9. A "reconfigure" mode for large projects, where I can turn off updating until I'm finished making project changes.  Then, it refreshes and rebuilds everything.
  10. Better compaction of the debugger view -- filter out regular, running threads.
  11. Hotkey-based pop-out object inspection (nice big window for complex objects).
  12. Less finger-painful hotkey for Quick Fix.  Control-1 is a stupid key for anything, dammit.  OK, I guess I can remap this myself, but really, man...what were you thinking?
  13. Never auto-open imports in outline.
  14. Resource History should be full window, not a tab.

3:19:44 PM     | comment [] | trackback []